By Mariam Khan, UNFPA Representative to Türkiye, Country Director for Azerbaijan and Georgia

Why Are Fertility Rates Declining? What About People’s Desired Family Size?

TURKSTAT just announced that Türkiye’s total fertility rate dropped to 1.48 children in 2024. It was 1.51 in the previous year and 2.38 in 2001. The total fertility rate has remained below the population replacement level of 2.1 children—the rate to maintain population size without migration—for the past 8 years. On the other hand, the desired fertility rate was 3 children, according to the Türkiye Demography and Health Survey (2018). So, there is a certain gap between the actual and desired fertility, which is more newsworthy.

Populations are constantly in flux due to changes in fertility, mortality and migration. The big demographic transition, the shift from higher to lower mortality and fertility, is happening everywhere. Two-thirds of the world now lives in low-fertility contexts, where the average number of children per family is less than two. While people are living longer due to advances in healthcare, many are choosing to have fewer children. In many countries, policies aimed at increasing fertility often fail when they narrowly focus on influencing women to have more children—without addressing deeper structural issues. So, without a comprehensive and holistic approach aiming inclusive social and economic development, such efforts can be ineffective, costly and tend to directly or indirectly erode women rights. 

Fertility decline is driven by complex factors, irrespective of where a country is and its demographic transition, including economic pressures, changing social norms and cultural expectations as well as, peace and security which all influence when and whether couples choose to have children.

The real question we should be asking is: Are we enabling people to make informed choices about their futures—including family size—while aligning these choices with sustainable development goals?

A Global Trend Affecting Türkiye

Türkiye’s investments in health and education have improved life expectancy, reduced child mortality, and increased the average age at first marriage. But these gains have also contributed to changing family dynamics. Today, families consider a wide range of factors before deciding to have children—economic uncertainty, housing costs, the rising cost of raising a child, especially for education, and the burden of unpaid care work, which still falls mostly on women, making it difficult for them to balance work and family life. As a result, many couples are delaying parenthood or choosing to have less children than they desire.

As mentioned, while data shows that the desired family size in Türkiye is 3 children, the actual average family size is below 2 children per family (1.48). Notably, non-working women have only slightly higher fertility than working women. This gap between desired and actual fertility deserves attention.

Rethinking Human Capital

A child born today will only join the workforce 15 to 20 years from now, meaning that having more children today will only contribute to desired goals in the medium to long term. So, Türkiye should focus on investing in the existing human capital for social and economic prosperity. But how?

1. Over the next decade, around 900,000 babies will be born each year. The first 1,000 days of life—when health, nutrition, and early care and childhood education matter most—shape a person’s lifelong potential. Increasing social investment in these areas, especially by improving exclusive breastfeeding rates and early childhood nutrition among the poorest communities, can deliver lasting benefits for individuals and society as a whole.
2. In the coming decade, every year, around 1.6 million young people will enter Türkiye’s labor market. Their economic outlook will shape their life choices—including when and whether to start a family. High NEET (not in education, employment, or training) rates, especially among young women (36%), signal the need for better preparations for the job market, including vocational training. Ending child marriage and supporting adolescent transitions to adulthood are also vital.
3. Fewer than 4 in 10 women in Türkiye participate in the workforce, despite high education levels. Unlocking this potential can accelerate economic growth and allow women to realize both career and family aspirations.

So, by strengthening early childhood care, investing in young people’s futures, and facilitating women’s full economic participation, Türkiye can become more resilient where families thrive.

Balancing Rights and Policy

Countries that rely solely on short-term financial incentives to boost birth rates have seen limited success at a high cost. Real change comes from understanding and addressing the specific needs of different populations. That includes tackling poverty, job insecurity, housing challenges, and barriers to reproductive health services.

Successful countries have taken a long-term, inclusive approach by:
- Supporting parenthood for both men and women through communication campaigns and policies
- Improving economic and housing stability through financial support such as child allowances and tax deductions.
- Making childcare more affordable and accessible and promoting sharing carework and childcare between men and women
- Promoting workplace equality with women and family friendly policies, including maternity and paternity leaves, flexible and remote work.

- Ensuring access to quality reproductive health services so people can reach their desired family size.

In demographically resilient societies, women’s rights and choices are protected, and families thrive. Europe’s most gender-equal countries tend to have both higher fertility rates and stronger economies.

Türkiye at a Crossroads

All projections show that family sizes will continue to shrink. Sustainable demographic resilience requires  asking why people are not able to realise desired family size and addressing today’s needs accordingly like low female workforce participation and high NEET rates.

The High Council on Population Policies is a promising opportunity for a whole-of-government approach. The upcoming 2025 Demography and Health Survey will be crucial to understanding what prevents people from having their desired number of children. These insights should inform policies that meet public needs while also supporting economic, workforce, and social protection systems.

By learning from global examples—from Japan and South Korea to Sweden and France—Türkiye can shape its own path. It has a unique opportunity to define a population strategy grounded in human capital and sustainable growth.

UNFPA’s Offer: Supporting Sustainable Solutions

UNFPA works to implement the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) Programme of Action, adopted in 1994, which prioritizes rights and choices while developing population and development policies. In Türkiye, UNFPA works with the government, civil society and communities to promote people-centered rights-based approaches to demographic challenges. This includes:

• Evidence-based policy support for long-term, gender-sensitive strategies.
• Strengthening reproductive health systems to help people achieve their desired family size.
• Promoting gender equality and family-friendly policies for inclusive social and economic development
• Advancing research and data to guide policy decisions.

Investing in people—ensuring rights, choices and support—is key to building a prosperous, sustainable future for all. The core question isn’t whether there are too many or too few people, but whether everyone has the equal rights and opportunities to shape their own lives with dignity.